I'm going to immediately be accused of ageism, that much I anticipate.
The going logic that keeps coming around is that the "Geezers of Gold" that killed Brokeback Mountain a few years ago are the real swing voters of the US. This means that as go the old folks, so goes the Academy in terms of nominations, snubs, and winners in many but not all cases. Even if their "pick" as a bloc doesn't outright win, they can play the spoiler and tip things another direction. Actors are a big contingent, but how does the age split go across the board?
The painful personal analogue for me is community theatre, where if the elders in power don't go for it, it ain't happening. Some of the following experiences are true, some overheard, and some are invented realistically.
The hottest, most cutting edge play or musical can be available for amateur production with plenty of young actors ready to jump at the chance to play in it, but if the Blue Hair Mafia (BHM) decide they want to do Nunsense again or that Mornings At Seven hasn't bee revived eight times, that's what they want and that's what they'll have. A new David Mamet play? Who wants to hear all those dirty words?! Onstage nudity? Devilish sin, let's do Our Town instead! Wait a minute, where's our annual Tennessee Williams show? How long can we make a completely unabridged Shakespeare show's runtime? Wait just a damn minute, we can't have actors say the N word in a production of Ragtime! Imagine the protests, but honestly, where are we going to find all those black people?
With this year as a case study, I've wondered if the geezers (I use the term affectionately) had/will have a hand in...
...Dear Zachary and Roman Polanski: Wanted & Desired getting shoved off the shortlist for Feature Doc because they were TV-bound (Zachary in December on MSNBC and Polanski already hit HBO), which isn't considered Old Hollywood "classy" enough I suppose...
...Stranded being ignored because it's about those horrible brown cannibals!...
...Gonzo shunned because it's assumed the subject himself would get enough of an audience on DVD...
...The Order of Myths being left off the Doc shortlist because it reminds people that old folks aren't crazy about non-whites and that the appearance of progressive ideas prevailing may be just that...
...Che gets dismissed for any consideration for the top prize amongst the scuttlebutt because 4 hours is a long time for an OAP to spend watching a movie about some pinko where no one speaks damn English...at least Lawrence of Arabia came out when they were in their 20's...
...early dismissal of Mickey Rourke's chances because The Wrestler gets too intense at one point thanks to blood...
...the possible last-minute arrival of Gran Torino and Eastwood on respective lists not necessarily for merit as much as "shut up, he's one of 'us'." I never count out an Eastwood film nor the man himself as an actor, but if the consensus among those under 70 is that there are five plus films better than Torino and it shows up on the Best Pic list...
...The Visitor shows up on the Best Pic list because as much as the oldies love Clint, they don't want "get off my lawn" to ring in their ears throughout 2009 and they don't end up liking Torino as much as they really want to...
..."it's too depressing" is code for "it reminds me of the less-Greater aspects of my Generation back when I was younger" kills Revolutionary Road...
...the counter-spoiler effect happens and The Dark Knight, WALL-E, or another film considered a dark horse shows up due to split votes for Benjamin Button, Gran Torino, or something else...and the geezers don't come to a consensus similar to the Republican Party during the primaries such that they end up with nothing they can all get behind...
My personal hope is that the old folk do in fact split their preference, The Visitor squeaks through, and there are a couple big surprises on top of conventional-thinking upsets. Are the big wrong-o picks all their fault? Not necessarily, but they could be.
I don't hate older people, I'm calling them like I see the situation this year and what has happened for too many years now. Jeff does enough Oscar reporting and footsoldiering for six writers, so I don't see myself writing too much about the Awardaholic Season, but we'll see.