I will have to follow this up at some point with updated last-minute additions, since the retailers have wised up and left items off their printed ads that now always leak. I've gone through what is out there and have compiled some tips for you, the reader. I was going to do all of this for myself anyway, so I might as well spill for the greater good. I meant to post this yesterday, but enough changed since then that I've rewritten this about seven times.
I'm specifically looking at TVs, Blu-ray players, and Blu-ray discs. I'm excluding crap that no one should bother with like Monsters vs. Aliens and, honestly, the mountains of DVDs that'll be $4 (The Dark Knight, Hellboy 2). Best Buy has the most of those in-store, but as far as I can tell, all of them have been matched by Amazon. Why buy The Dark Knight for $4 on DVD if you know you want to get it on Blu-ray soon (or for $10 tomorrow) anyway?
The Rule of Thumb is: you really shouldn't have to leave your house to get the best deals. If you see something (TV/Blu player/Blu-ray disc) from a doorbuster ad missing from this entry, the reason is that it's a waste of your time or it's a movie I don't care for (or missed, I'm sure there'll be a few).
Don't Do It
As much as you may be tempted by the price tag, these aren't going to be worth it for various reasons. They could be an unreliable/badly-supported brand, the prior year (or year before last's) model, or just not worth your money. I spoke to a friend who is in the process of getting a third HDTV thanks to not following my Ten HD Commandments. It's my fault for not delivering them down from the mountain of experience in time to save him and his pocketbook. It's not too late for you.
TVs
Almost every TV that looks too good to be true is, with a notable trio of exceptions listed a bit further down. There are a ton of 720p TVs on the doorbuster ads. The stores and manufacturers are just trying to get rid of them. A TV is an investment, not something you want to cheap-out on. You don't need to spend $4000 to be happy, but you will not be happy with any of the $499-$599 junkers on those ads. Across the board, I recommend you avoid Westinghouse, Insignia (in-house BestBuy brand), Apex, AOC, ProScan, Sylvania, Element, Dynex, and Sanyo. The Sony sets are overpriced.
Blu-rays
$12.99 Target Exclusive Gone With the Wind Anniversary Blu-ray
Unlike the Wizard of Oz Target Exclusive set (which I recommend further down), stay away from this one. Instead of being the same three-disc set included in the giant $60+ collector's box like Oz, this is only the Feature disc and no extras, aside from the commentary track. I'm more a fan of the making of GWTW than the movie itself, so it's the big box (reviewed soon) for me.
$12.99 Ghostbusters (Amazon, Best Buy, you name it)
I still haven't seen this transfer with my own eyes, but the consensus seems to be that the picture quality is terrible at first and gets better as it goes.
$10.99 Casino Royale (Amazon)
This isn't the Collector's Edition (currently $22.99) that has been found for as low as about $12 previously. This looks like a stock-clearing.
$7.99 Stargate Extended Edition (Amazon)
This one has already been double dipped on Blu-ray. The transfer on the $7.99 one is no good. The "Good One" is $17.99 from Amazon, and has garnered rave reviews from friends who are fans.
$10 each Harry Potter 1 & 2 (Amazon)
If you're really into these, there are new editions of Sorcerer's Stone and Chamber of Secrets with a bunch of new stuff on them and in the box coming in just a couple weeks. If all you want is the movie, fine, but be warned of the coming double-dip.
$10 Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs (Amazon)
This movie is not worth buying, even if you have small kids and are dying to find something else to stick in front of them. Your kid(s) will not watch it a second time. Simon Pegg helps, but there is exactly one sequence in the whole movie I was really impressed with that involved a lot of rain, a weasel, and a Baryonyx. The moral of the movie is: it is impossible to be happy outside of a domesticated family life full of merchandising--er, friends. Rent or Netflix it if you just have to see it.
Players
Not having Wifi built-in isn't a deal-breaker, but it makes things like firmware updates (which happen fairly often) a pain in the ass. On top of that, BD-Live is no big loss, but if you want to use new features like Netflix Watch Instantly or Pandora...get ready to run a cable or spend extra for a Wifi adapter of some kind ($75-95 depending on model and quality).
$78 Magnavox NB500MG1F (Walmart)
Do not, do not, do not buy this. This is going to get a bunch of Blu-ray players in people's homes, which is good for the format, but bad for the people getting this box that's little more than a DVD up-converter that happens to play (most) Blu-ray discs. A $78 Blu-ray player sounds like a great idea until you realize this player doesn't have two very important things:
(1) Profile 2.0, which means some newer discs may not play properly or at all, and...
(2) Internet connectivity of any kind, which means no easy means of updating the firmware
$99 LG BD270 (Amazon)
The same downsides as the Magnavox above (Profile 1.1, no ethernet or Wifi), but better performance.
$148 Sony BDP-S369 (Walmart)/$149.99 Sony BDP-S360 (Best Buy/Target)
These are functionally the same Blu-ray player at all three stores, but Walmart has their own model number variant. Profile 2.0 and ethernet aren't that big a deal compared to the value of a couple below.
Available Online (Avoid the Stores)
Amazon is matching all of Best Buy and Walmart's best-priced Blu-rays with few exceptions (listed just below). Avoid lines and sales tax if at all possible.
Players
The best way to go is to have a player that has Wifi already built-in (PS3 or otherwise), but there's nothing wrong with getting one of the more inexpensive ones with the features you want and add some sort of Wifi adapter like the Linksys Dual Band Wireless-N Adapter ($70.99 at Amazon). If you already have a device that does things like Netflix Watch Instantly, then just get a good player and ignore the extra bells and whistles.
The Best Price with Built-in Wifi
$199.95 Sony BDP-S560 (Amazon)
Assuming you don't care about Netflix, Pandora, YouTube, or whatever on your player, but do want Wifi, this is the best price you'll find. It starts up faster and the tray opens quicker than older Sony Models.
Best Balance and Bang-for-Buck
$148 Samsung BD-P1590 (Walmart)/$149.99 Samsung BD-P1600 (Best Buy)
Amazon has this for the same price, sans sales tax. Be aware that "Wifi ready" doesn't mean "Wifi built-in". These are functionally the same unit. They are much better than the Magnavox Box of 99 Problems above. They have Profile 2.0 and can have their firmware updated. They also have Pandora, Netflix Watch Instantly, and YouTube capability, but without a proprietary Samsung USB Wifi Adapter or the Linksys listed above, you'll have to hard-wire it into ethernet. $220 for the player and the adapter gives you the combination of Profile 2.0, Wifi, and the extra "apps". ANyone who wants a player and doesn't have some sort of Netflix WI box already should go this route.
The Best TVs
Panasonic, LG, Samsung, and Sharp are the most reasonably-priced for the quality, aside from the three listed below.
At Amazon:
$909.69 Panasonic VIERA G10 TC-P42G10 42-Inch 1080p Plasma ($290 off)
$1135.85 Panasonic VIERA G10 TC-P46G10 46-Inch 1080p Plasma ($364 off)
$1249.85 Panasonic VIERA G10 TC-P50G10 50-Inch 1080p Plasma ($350 off)
Depending on the size you're hunting for, go with one of these. The 46" would be the sweet spot for me. These are THX-certified TVs that do better self-calibration than just about anything on the market. These are the only TVs listed by anyone that I'd consider to have my full, unbiased and unequaled endorsement. These three TVs are among the best value I've seen, and remember you don't have hundreds in sales tax ordering from Amazon and they ship for free.
Blu-ray Discs
Amazon
Be ready to set some calendar alarms to get some of these time-sensitive deals. Amazon is shipping everything free, even items usually under the $25 free shipping threshold. Many of the below discs include Digital Copy as well (like the Batman titles).
$6.99 Superman: The Movie
This one is seven bucks until they run out in the still-ongoing Lightning Deal. It's $9.99 once they run out.
$59.99 James Bond Blu-ray 10-pack (Dr. No, From Russia with Love, Goldfinger, Thunderball, Live and Let Die, Moonraker, For Your Eyes Only, The World is Enough, Die Another Day, Quantum of Solace)
This is the best deal of the day, available from 4:45-8:00am PST on Friday until they run out (and they will). $6 per disc can't be beat, since this set is normally $159.99.
$9.99 The Dark Knight
This one is available at this price from 8am-12pm PST. It's $12.99 the rest of the weekend, same as Target's price.
$14.99 Mad Men Season 1
This one is time-sensitive as well. Get it while it lasts 12pm-4pm PST tomorrow (Friday).
$11.99 Coraline
One of the top New Release disc transfers of the year combined with some of the most engaging extras in a year full of featurette fluff.
$10 Braveheart
$10 Gladiator
Yes, there are issues with the Gladiator transfer (and none with Braveheart), but the $10 rebate included makes this a free-after-rebate title since I still own the DVD. I'm going to get both of these this way and avoid giving Walmart any of my money (or Best Buy $12.99 apiece).
$10 Harry Potter 1-5 (each, Prisoner of Azkaban linked)
$7.99 2001: A Space Odyssey
$7.99 The Searchers
$7.99 Ronin
$7.99 The Terminator
$7.99 The Departed
$7.99 Goodfellas
$7.99 Star Trek II: The Wrath of Khan
$7.99 Star Trek IV: The Voyage Home
$7.99 Star Trek: First Contact
$7.99 Silence of the Lambs
$7.99 V for Vendetta
$7.99 Dogma
$7.99 Full Metal Jacket
$7.99 Reservoir Dogs
$7.99 Dark City: Director's Cut
$7.99 Robocop
$7.99 Star Trek VI: The Undiscovered Country
$8.49 Bullitt
$8.99 The Aviator
$9.49 The Fountain
$9.99 There Will Be Blood
$9.99 Wedding Crashers
$9.99 The Visitor
$9.99 The Thing
$10.49 The Mist 2-Disc Collector's Edition
$11.49 Batman Begins
$11.99 Lonesome Dove
$11.99 The Monster Squad
$11.99 Away We Go
$12.99 The 400 Blows: Criterion Collection
$12.99 300: The Complete Experience
$14.99 Baraka
One of the most stunning HD transfers on home video, according to many sources including Roger Ebert.
$20.49 Mad Men Season 2
$22.99 John Adams (HBO)
$40.99 Planet Earth: The Complete Series
$9.99 Eastbound and Down Season 1 DVD
This is the only DVD I'm listing because I enjoy this series so much.
In-Store Only
Best Buy
All their in-store Blu-ray deals shown in the ad are now matched by Amazon.
Target
$12.99 The Wizard of Oz 3-disc Emerald Edition Blu-ray
If you don't care about the pile of tchotchkes in the Limited Collector's Edition box, you can get just the movie, extras, and 6-hour documentary disc for much less.
$12.99 Gremlins Blu-ray
This is a retailer exclusive that you can't get anywhere else, and this is $10 off the lowest price I see on it regularly. Will it be available at some point at a lower price? Maybe so, but you can only buy it from Target for now.
The Big Question Marks
A bunch of retailers are purposely withholding every last doorbuster from their ads, listing/showing 15 out of "over 30" Blu-rays on sale. These will be all over the net the day of. Best Buy is the one of the big three (Walmart/Target/Best Buy) that has most notably expanded Blu-ray shelf space in advance of Friday, so they will probably have some desirable stuff that Amazon won't know about in advance. As with last year, Amazon will probably abruptly drop pricing on some items to match the brick & mortar outlets during the day, so bring a smartphone with you if you're going to stores.