With the flurry of critcs' awards that have come out in the last week or so, everyone's getting more firm on their Oscar nomination shortlists, so here's where I think Best Picture sits at the moment. I'll come up with a comprehensive list I'll post periodically over the next couple weeks for other categories. On to Best Picture...

I see it as a crowded field now when it seemed very different a month or so ago. Only four movies are locks, by my estimation: Dreamgirls, The Departed, United 93, and Letters from Iwo Jima. Past that, it's up in the air.

I hesitate on Letters... a bit, if only for the acting branch of Academy voters throwing more support behind a home team-acted pic. It's the only one listed above that might get bounced.

As for slot 5...

I think The Queen is less certain as #5 due to the surge in support of The Departed, Letters..., and ...Sunshine, not originally considered certain contenders. Helen Mirren and Michael Sheen may be more likely to be recognized for their performances than the movie as a Best Pic. The fifth slot will almost certainly be one of the following, listed in order of perceived probability:

The Queen
Babel
Little Miss Sunshine
Little Children

It behooves me to note that I have not seen any of the above films. Did I mean that as a slight critique on people getting personal about what gets nominated based on personal preference? No, certainly not....