HBO and the Sandstorm

Thinking a bit about Amazon today got me to thinking a bit about HBO.

Six months ago, Amazon Prime Instant picked up The Wire, Rome, and loads of HBO "back catalogue" original programming.

HBO Go is still not available for Amazon FireTV, but I think that's only the result of some sort of exclusivity deal expiring. Come 2015, HBO's standalone streaming service makes that moot.

Contrary to what Steve Burke says, I think it's ridiculous for HBO to not start gunning for Netflix in the standalone streaming arena. His spin almost reads like a Mafia Don making an idle threat, "when you been part of 'the family' for so long, why gotta go make trouble?" HBO chief Richard Plepler is right in noting that "hundreds of millions" have been left on the table due to a combination of cable bundle "Families" not actively driving up HBO subscriptions and HBO choosing not to go direct-to-consumer.

Sitting on the "first run" Iron Throne of original series has kept people bowing and paying into The Bundle for years. I've long opined that the sleeping giant is HBO's enormous back catalogue of made-for-HBO narrative and documentary movies, many of which haven't re-aired in years (some, decades). Many of them have rarely, if ever, been readily available on home video in any form, with the recent exception of blessed Warner Archive DVD releases. Couple all of that in-house content with HBO's multi-decade relationship with literally every studio in Hollywood.

The thing I keep seeing repeated is "Netflix should be scared of what is to come," but I think that's wrongheaded.

Even as an eventual little brother to HBO, Netflix has enough going for it that they can survive for a bit yet while they make some strategic acquisitions and beef up their offerings so as to not get pushed off the playing field. Netflix should be wary and think long-term, but they're radically more forward-thinking than "Cable" networks and "Cable Bundle" providers.

"Cable" complacent content businesses are the ostriches that'll get swept up in the sandstorm.

Amazon's Set-Top Box

Bloomberg reports that Amazon is planning to release their own "hockey puck" set-top box this fall, which will, like their theoretical smartphone, enter a very crowded marketplace.

If, like the story says, it is designed to connect people primarily to the Amazon Instant Video service, that's great, but so does my Roku. Bloomberg describe Amazon's interest in driving developers to create apps for Amazon's own ecosystem, presumably to support the theoretical phone and set-top box in addition to their Fire tablets.

Amazon should have done this three years ago, to be honest. This is a very uphill fight at this point, even with their enormous user base. Were I them, I would instead focus resources on being the premier distributor of digital media across various platforms, instead of sinking yet more money into a non-starter of a platform. They are up against Apple, Google, Microsoft, Sony, Roku, Boxee, (less so) Nintendo, and TV manufacturers themselves.

The team working on it doesn't scream "content disruption geniuses", either:

The set-top box is being developed by Amazon’s Lab126 division in Cupertino, Calif., which has toyed with building TV-connected devices for several years, the people familiar with the effort say. The project is being run by Malachy Moynihan, a former vice president of emerging video products at Cisco Systems (CSCO) who worked on the networking company’s various consumer video initiatives. Moynihan also spent nine years atApple (AAPL) during the 1980s and 1990s. Among the other hardware engineers working at Lab126 with considerable experience making set-top boxes are Andy Goodman, formerly a top engineer at TiVo (TIVO) and Vudu (WMT), and Chris Coley, a former hardware architect at ReplayTV, one of Silicon Valley’s first DVR companies.

Proximity to Apple HQ and résumé credits there from the 80's and 90's don't equal instant success. I'll say this much: they're DOA if they don't support ecosystem-wide search like the Roku 3 out of the box.

Amazon has financed TV pilots for original shows, and are locking up their own Netflix and Hulu-like exclusive deals. I'm not counting them out, but they really need to make a bold move that sets them apart from both the existing hardware and distribution behemoths to break away from the pack. If anyone has the buying power heft to outpace Apple, it's Amazon, but their track record does not inspire confidence.